SMM Nickel Update on August 18:
Macro News:
(1) US envoy Steve Witkoff said Sunday that significant progress made during the meeting between US and Russian leaders on the 15th led President Trump to abandon his demand for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, instead focusing on a broader peace agreement. Witkoff also noted that Russian President Putin agreed to provide security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to Ukraine by the US and European countries.
(2) The central bank released its Q2 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The report proposed implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in detail in the next phase. It emphasized promoting a reasonable rebound in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy, aiming to keep prices at a reasonable level. In the next stage, financial policies will focus on the supply side, creating effective demand through high-quality supply.
Spot Market:
Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 120,300-123,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,650 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel were quoted at 2,100-2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotation range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel spot premiums and discounts was -50-300 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract strengthened during the night session but fluctuated downward after opening this morning. By midday, the SHFE nickel quote was 120,420 yuan/mt, down 0.22% on the day.
Currently, nickel prices are mainly influenced by macro sentiment. Expectations of domestic policy easing and a temporary pullback in the US dollar have provided support to nickel prices, but upside room remains limited by geopolitical uncertainties and high inventory pressure. In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate amid a tug-of-war between weak fundamentals and supportive macro sentiment, with a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.
